Polls Align on Wider LPC Lead

Winter bump? Rolling trackers from Nanos and Liaison now mirror online firms, reinforcing a broader consensus in favour of the Liberals.

Good morning, 338Canada readers,

The latest weekly trackers from Nanos Research and Liaison Strategies have converged this week.

While this convergence is not a surprise from a purely numerical standpoint, these rolling trackers rely on different methodologies (Live agents from Nanos, IVR for Liaison). The fact that both now align with the online firms showing a larger Liberal lead over the Conservatives should not be ignored. While the top-line numbers differ modestly from firm to firm, what we are seeing is about as close to a polling consensus as we have had in months.

Released this morning and fielded throughout February (Feb. 6–27, 2026), the latest Nanos update shows an 11-point lead for the Liberals over the Conservatives — a significant contrast with Nanos’ numbers through the fall, which consistently showed a deadlock at the top of voting intentions. As recently as last December, Nanos had the Liberals and Conservatives at 36% apiece.

See the progression of the Nanos tracker below. The wave ending January 2 showed a two-point gap in favour of the Liberals — essentially a statistical tie. By January 30, the gap had grown to four points. This morning’s update puts the Liberals at 44% against 33% for the Conservatives.

As mentioned on the last 338 Sunday Update, this sudden movement in party support correlates with shifts in perceptions of the leaders. Virtually all pollsters in the field this winter have measured an uptick in satisfaction and approval for Mark Carney, while Pierre Poilievre’s personal numbers have taken a hit.

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