338 Sunday Update: Leader Effect?

Are Pierre Poilievre’s weakening numbers pulling Conservative support down? Fresh polls point to widening gaps in leader ratings and vote intention.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

The trends first detected in federal polling in mid-January were not only confirmed last week — they intensified.

New data from the Angus Reid Institute added weight to a growing narrative: Mark Carney’s Liberals continue to gain ground in public opinion, while the federal Conservatives — and especially CPC leader Pierre Poilievre — absorbed a significant setback.

Let’s begin with the latest polling, before turning to this week’s 338Canada projection.

Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update. Let’s dig in.

Angus Reid Institute: Poilievre sliding — and dragging the CPC with him

The latest federal poll from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI), which includes both party and leader numbers, showed a notable shift in the race.

Nationally, the Liberals climbed to 45%, up four points since January, while the Conservatives fell six points to 32% — the party’s weakest result from ARI since… 2022.

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