Nanos Tracker Shows No Summer Shift

Carney and Poilievre each gain three points as preferred PM in latest update, while party support remains flat.

The latest update from the Nanos Research tracker, released this morning, has the Liberals at 44% nationally, holding a 10-point lead over the Conservatives.

Because Nanos uses a four-week rolling sample, its numbers often lag behind other pollsters when “major” political events occur. This week’s update covers interviews conducted between August 1 and 21—meaning three-quarters of the sample pre-dates Pierre Poilievre’s by-election win in Battle River–Crowfoot on August 18.

(Whether that by-election qualifies as a “major” event is debatable, but it is unlikely to have shifted the Nanos topline by much.)

Looking at longer-term trends, Nanos sees very little movement over the summer. Interestingly, the previous four-week wave (ending July 27, see chart below) also measured the Liberals at 44% and the Conservatives at 34%. No movement whatsoever.

As for preferred PM, Nanos sees an uptick of three points for Poilievre, from 24% on July 25 to 27% on August 22… but also measured an identical hike of three points for Carney over that span, from 49% to 52%.

While this positive movement for Poilievre remains modest, it is the best result for the Conservative leader since early June in the Nanos tracker.

These findings contrast with Sunday’s Abacus Data poll, which suggested a narrowing race and even put the Conservatives narrowly ahead for the first time since the April general election. Still, it is worth noting that all six Abacus polls since April have shown the two parties within striking distance of each other.

In short: the latest Nanos tracker is too early to either confirm or contradict the Abacus numbers. More data will be needed in the coming days to see whether the numbers really are tightening.

Find the complete list of all federal polls on 338Canada here.

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