338 Sunday Update: With Poilievre Back, Are the Numbers Shifting?

Fresh polling from Abacus points to cracks in the Liberals' post-election honeymoon.

Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Last week may have been quiet on the polling front, but not in the polling booths. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre easily won the Battle River–Crowfoot by-election and will return to the House of Commons this fall as the actual Leader of the Opposition.

Was it a real test for Poilievre? Two things can be true at once: 1) the bar for success was low, but running in rural Alberta carried a risk—not of losing, but of underperforming—and 2) he didn’t. Poilievre captured 80% of the vote, squarely in line with past Conservative performances in the riding.

This result now gives us a clear baseline for future comparisons.

Now, let’s recap the week in polling, and update the 338Canada federal projections.

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Abacus Data Goes Against the Grain: CPC +2

Abacus Data CEO

David Coletto

teased his firm’s new numbers on social media Thursday:

New @abacusdataca poll out this weekend will show the Conservatives marginally ahead of the Liberals for the first time since March. #cdnpoli

Released early this morning, this new poll from Abacus (fielded August 15-19, so mostly before Poilievre’s by-election win) puts the Conservatives at 41% nationally, two points ahead of the Liberals at 39%. While this is a statistical tie, it is the first survey showing the Conservatives ahead since last April’s general election.