Nanos: Liberals Climb to 48%, Open 17-Point Lead
Latest four-week tracker shows a 10-point Liberal surge, with Mark Carney holding a commanding lead over Pierre Poilievre.
Buoyed by the personal popularity of their leader, the federal Liberals are flying high these days. Poll after poll seems to confirm—and reinforce—the current trend. While such a rapid rise may not be sustainable over the long term, this morning’s Nanos tracker suggests the Liberals may not yet have reached their peak yet.
With data fielded over the past four weeks (February 20 to March 13, 2026), the Liberals climb to 48% in vote intention, compared to 31% for the Conservatives—an unusual 17-point gap between the two main parties. The NDP remain a distant third at 11%.
Compared to Nanos’ previous four-week wave, this represents a statistically significant leap of ten points for the Liberals, up from 38%. The Conservatives, meanwhile, have slipped six points, from 37% to 31% over the same period.
Naturally, these Nanos numbers do not exist in a vacuum. Every major pollster currently active on the federal scene has detected similar trends in favour of Mark Carney and the Liberals, albeit with varying magnitudes (see chart below).
Nanos’ preferred prime minister tracker is unchanged from last week: Mark Carney is the choice of 57% of respondents, 35 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre at 22%. Compared to one month ago, Carney has gained four points (from 53% to 57%), while Poilievre has slipped two (from 24% to 22%).
Read Nanos’ latest here.
On Sunday, the 338Canada projection update placed the Liberals at their highest level since the launch of 338 nearly a decade ago, with an average of 209 seats from coast to coast—more than 100 seats ahead of the Conservatives, whose projection stood at 106.
More to come this week.
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