Léger: Conservatives making inroads in Quebec

Outside of Greater Montreal, the Bloc and CPC are in a tight battle for Quebec voters according to Léger

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A new Quebec-only Léger poll was released Wednesday in Le Journal de Montréal, and while the provincial numbers caught most of the media’s attention (and for good reason, as François Legault and the once-mighty CAQ has taken a devastating hit in public opinion), the poll’s federal numbers showed rather interesting divides — both regional and generational.

With a total sample of 1,040 Quebec respondents and fielded December 1-4, 2023, this new Léger poll measures the Bloc holding a province-wide lead with 31% of support (just below the party’s 33% tally in the 2021 federal election).

That number, in itself, tells quite a story.

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Why? The Bloc’s provincial cousin, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois, has gone from 15% of the popular vote in last year’s Quebec general election (winning only three seats) to 31% in popular support according to the same Léger poll — six points ahead of Legault’s CAQ. Surely the PQ doubling its popular support would have some collateral positive effect on the Bloc? Not so, according to this poll.

Jean-Marc Léger himself stressed in the JdM piece that the PQ’s resurgence had little to do with a hike of support for sovereignty. The poll shows support for independence stands at 34% in the province — well within intervals of the past decade.

Léger measures Justin Trudeau’s Liberals in second place with 28% in the province (6 points below the 2021 results) and Pierre Poilievre’s CPC at 25% (6 points higher than its 2021 tally).

However, as mentioned above, the regional and generational crosstabs drew my attention far more than the province-wide numbers.

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While the Bloc still holds a 10-point lead among older voters (55+ years old), the Conservatives have taken the outright lead in the all-important 35-54-year-old bracket: 36% CPC, 28% LPC, 22% BQ (from a subsample of n=395 respondents).

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Among young Quebec voters, not a single party cracks the 25%-mark. All four parties are within the margin of error of each other: BQ 24%, LPC 23%, NDP 22%, CPC 20%.

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The regional numbers offer no solace for the Liberals, although neither are they catastrophic. The Liberals and Bloc are in a statistical tie in Greater Montreal — which, if we go by precedent, means the Liberals should be holding their Montreal fortress and the Bloc should dominate most 450 suburbs.

But outside Montreal, the Liberals take a distant third place.

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In Quebec City, the Conservatives (42%) hold a 17-point lead over the Bloc (25%) and a 25-point lead over the Liberals (17%). In the regions of Quebec, the Bloc takes first place with 32%, but the CPC is lurking not far behind at 28%.

What are we to conclude from this poll?

• The Bloc is not at all benefiting from the PQ’s rise of support. Even though the Bloc remains in first place in the province, it barely cracks one third of the Quebec vote.

• The Conservatives are definitely making some modest inroads in Quebec, even though not enough yet to make a splash in the seat projection. Naturally, as it currently stands, the CPC does not need Quebec, since polls show it leads everywhere else in the country. (But then again, the CPC does not need Atlantic Canada either by the same logic.)

• The Liberals hold 20 of 22 seats in Montreal and Laval. Add a handful more seats from the Outaouais and Eastern Townships and that’s the Liberal base in the province. All other LPC seats could be under siege should Liberal numbers do not improve come election time.

Now let’s get to this week’s projection update.