The Sinking CAQ

Consecutive Quebec polls from Léger & Pallas Data show the governing CAQ losing ground in every region of Quebec, and the Parti Québécois taking the outright lead

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We are living through hard times for incumbents, and François Legault — even though he had been one of the most popular premiers across Canada since his 2018 victory — is no exception to the trend.

Two weeks ago, L’actualité magazine released a Pallas Data/Qc125 poll that showed the CAQ losing a stunning 10 points in voting intentions since September, and that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois had taken a 6-point province-wide lead.

On Wednesday, the much awaited confirmation from Léger came: 31% for the PQ, 25% for the CAQ.

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Both polls showed eerily similar regional breakdowns: The PQ is leading in Greater Montreal (which means a significant hike in the 450), stands alone in first place in the Quebec City region (with the CAQ below the 20%-mark), and holds a 4-point lead over the CAQ in the regions of Quebec (which means a statistical tie).

In October 2022, the CAQ won the regions of Quebec by 31 points.

Naturally, such a dramatic turn of event results in major shifts in the Quebec projection, and increases its uncertainty. Let’s look at the top-line numbers.