The Sinking CAQ
Consecutive Quebec polls from Léger & Pallas Data show the governing CAQ losing ground in every region of Quebec, and the Parti Québécois taking the outright lead
We are living through hard times for incumbents, and François Legault — even though he had been one of the most popular premiers across Canada since his 2018 victory — is no exception to the trend.
Two weeks ago, L’actualité magazine released a Pallas Data/Qc125 poll that showed the CAQ losing a stunning 10 points in voting intentions since September, and that Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois had taken a 6-point province-wide lead.
On Wednesday, the much awaited confirmation from Léger came: 31% for the PQ, 25% for the CAQ.
Both polls showed eerily similar regional breakdowns: The PQ is leading in Greater Montreal (which means a significant hike in the 450), stands alone in first place in the Quebec City region (with the CAQ below the 20%-mark), and holds a 4-point lead over the CAQ in the regions of Quebec (which means a statistical tie).
In October 2022, the CAQ won the regions of Quebec by 31 points.
Naturally, such a dramatic turn of event results in major shifts in the Quebec projection, and increases its uncertainty. Let’s look at the top-line numbers.