Léger: Carney Stronger Than Ever
The Liberals hit 50% nationally, casting doubt on signs of an NDP comeback.
Well, so much for “signs of a (modest) NDP comeback”.
The latest federal poll from Léger, released Wednesday morning by the National Post, takes a real swing at that narrative.
Against all odds, Mark Carney’s government remains firmly atop Canadian public opinion as the country heads into the summer months. Despite a slowing economy, the absence of a trade agreement with the United States, and the rollback of several climate policies, little appears capable of slowing the Prime Minister’s momentum. Neither Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives nor Avi Lewis’s New Democrats seem able to crack the Liberal armour — at least for now.
As I noted over the past week (here and here), some polling firms active at the federal level had recently detected signs of modest erosion in support for Mark Carney, with some voters appearing to drift toward the NDP. The latest Léger survey, published Wednesday by the National Post, tells an entirely different story.
According to Léger, not only does the NDP remain stuck near its floor, but the Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives thanks to exceptionally strong support in Quebec and British Columbia.
Nationally, the Liberals stand at 50% among decided and leaning voters, up two points since Léger’s previous survey in April. The Conservatives have slipped three points to 34%, while the Bloc Québécois and the NDP are tied for third place at 6% apiece.
If the national numbers are enough to raise eyebrows, the regional breakdowns are even more striking. In Quebec, the Liberals climb to 50%, fully 24 points ahead of the Bloc Québécois. In Ontario, the Liberal lead stands at 14 points over the Conservatives. On the Pacific coast, Léger measures Liberal support at 56% — nearly 30 points ahead of Pierre Poilievre’s CPC.
The 50% mark is particularly noteworthy. Few federal parties have reached that level in national polling over the past two decades.
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