Alberta Referendum: Ask a Clear Question, Get a Clearer Result
New Angus Reid polling finds significantly less support for Alberta independence when voters are asked directly about leaving Canada.
🍁Happy Monday morning, dear 338Canada readers,
We discussed Alberta separatism in yesterday's 338 Sunday Update, and lo and behold, a new poll from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) landed this morning.
The survey measures support both for separation itself and for "beginning the process" of separation using the wording proposed by Premier Danielle Smith in her 37-word referendum question.
When asked Smith's question verbatim, 60% of Albertans oppose beginning the process of holding a binding referendum on separation from Canada, while 35% support it.
Majorities in both Calgary (58%) and Edmonton (73%) reject the proposal. Outside the province's two largest cities, however, opinion is evenly divided, with 48% supporting the idea and 48% opposing it.
Albertans under the age of 55 also reject the proposal by comfortable margins. Among voters aged 18 to 34, 64% oppose beginning the process while 27% support it. Among those aged 35 to 54, the split stands at 65% to 34%.
The numbers tighten notably among older Albertans. Among voters aged 55 and over, 51% oppose the proposal while 43% support it.
These figures suggest a clear preference for remaining within Canada. However, the margin appears somewhat narrower than what other recent polls have found when asking directly about Alberta independence.
ARI then asked a far more straightforward question:
Should Alberta leave Canada and become its own independent country or stay in Canada?
The results were even more decisive.
Support for remaining in Canada rises to 67%, while support for independence falls to 30%. The pro-Canada side’s lead expands from 25 points to 37 points.
Majorities in every region, age group and gender category prefer remaining within Canada.
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