338 Sunday Update: Nice Country You Got There
Alberta separatism returns to the national conversation. The race in Quebec gets weirder. The Liberals remain firmly ahead federally.
🍁Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,
Well, just as we thought things might finally be entering a quieter season — at least until this fall's Quebec election — Alberta Premier Danielle Smith stepped in and promised a question on Alberta separation this fall. Not the question, mind you, but a question on whether to pursue the question.
Since we are doing this, you may as well bookmark the Alberta Separatism Tracker on 338Canada Alberta here. More will be added in the coming week, including demographic and regional data on support for and opposition to Alberta separatism. The data remain somewhat sparse for now, but I have a feeling that won't last long.
Since February, eleven publicly available surveys have measured Albertans' views on separation. Despite using different methodologies and sample compositions, every poll has found a clear majority opposed to leaving Canada.
Support for separation ranges from 17% to 31%, while opposition consistently lands consistently above 60% (and sometimes above 70%).
Naturally, opinions can evolve during a referendum campaign (Quebec voters know this all too well). But if a referendum on Alberta separation were held tomorrow, the polling evidence suggests it would be headed for a decisive defeat.
Still, with Alberta Premier Danielle Smith now committed to holding a vote this fall, the issue is unlikely to disappear from the political conversation anytime soon.
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