338 Sunday Update: The Ground is Shifting—Can the Conservatives Hold On?

Liberal gains in the polls are real, but the Conservatives remain in front—for now.

For the first time in 18 months, the political ground is shifting beneath Canada’s main federal parties. And for now, it’s shifting toward the Liberals. As for the Conservatives, while the party has suffered a modest slide in support (in the aggregate), they continue to lead the field and remain the favourites in both the vote and seat projections.

Meanwhile, the New Democrats have taken a hit in the past month. Polls have been unanimous in showing a downward trend for the party. As I wrote earlier this week, with polls showing a decline in NDP support in every region of the country, the party’s vote efficiency has fallen sharply.

At this rate, the NDP isn’t just “in trouble”—it’s in freefall.

Let us begin with a review of the past week’s numbers and present today’s 338Canada federal update.

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Léger: LPC gains 10 points in a month

After last week’s Léger poll—entirely fielded in Quebec—measured a sharp uptick in Liberal support (mostly at the expense of the Bloc Québécois), we were patiently awaiting Léger’s nationwide numbers.

Released last Tuesday, Léger’s latest poll for The Canadian Press puts the Liberals above the 30% mark from coast to coast for the first time since May 2023 (see the complete list of federal polls here).