The NDP is in Deep Trouble

With the Liberals rebounding and the Conservatives holding strong in the polls, the NDP faces steep losses unless it turns things around.

The federal NDP is in trouble. Deep trouble.

From the fall of 2023 to early January 2024, federal polls showed Justin Trudeau’s Liberals shedding support across the country, even dipping into the low 20s nationally. Yet throughout that slide, none of the points lost by the Liberals were picked up by the NDP—whose average remained stuck in the 17-20% range.

Now, January 2025 has come and gone, and February polls show a surge of support for the Trudeau-less Liberals. And the NDP? It has been bleeding support.

Now, hold your horses, everybody. Nobody seriously believes the NDP is about to get wiped off the map. The NDP brand remains strong in Western Canada, with two provincial NDP governments in B.C. and Manitoba and two competitive New Democratic parties holding Official Opposition status in Alberta and Saskatchewan.

However… federal numbers in the past month strongly suggest that Singh’s caucus could be significantly reduced—perhaps even cut in half—if the party does not turn things around before election day.

Let’s dive into what the latest numbers suggest for the federal New Democrats.