338 Sunday Update: Sun Sets on Trudeau Era

The Conservatives remain the front-runners in this week's update, but the Liberals enter new era with a fighting chance.

The Liberal Party of Canada will choose a new leader on Sunday night. We expect tha winner will then be sworn in as the 24th Prime Minister of Canada sometime next week.

And what about all those “hypothetical polls” we’ve been dissecting over the past month and a half? Soon, they will be hypothetical no more.

We will analyze the leadership race results once the numbers are in, and the coming week should be fascinating as we see whether the new leader gains any momentum.

But for now, let’s break down the past week’s federal polls and update the 338Canada federal projection.

Léger: Numbers swing back towards CPC

Last week, we witnessed a rare phenomenon in Canadian polling: massive swings in consecutive weeks from Léger. In last Sunday’s 338 update, we analyzed—and puzzled over—Léger’s latest numbers, which showed a significant bump for the Liberals. Nationally, the firm measured just a three-point gap between the Trudeau Liberals, who stood at 35% (generic ballot), and Poilievre’s Conservatives at 38%.

Seven days later, the latest Léger/National Post update delivered a dramatic 10-point swing back to the Conservatives, with the party climbing to 43% while the Liberals fell to 30%.