338 Sunday Update: The Liberal Surge Continues

Multiple polls confirm dramatic shift in momentum, as Liberals close in on Conservatives.

Happy Sunday morning, dear readers. Welcome to this week’s 338 Sunday Update. Let’s get started.

The federal landscape has been turned upside down in recent weeks. In early January, the Conservatives held a 25+ point advantage over the seemingly crumbling Liberals. Two months later, polls have measured a dramatic turnaround, and the gap has tightened to just a handful of points in the aggregate.

While recent polls disagree on the scale of this reversal (as we will see below), the trend is now undeniable. After spending more than a year on life support in public opinion, the Liberals have rebounded and continue to close the gap with the Conservatives.

Once again, we will focus on the now rather than speculate on what comes next. (That’s what readers of 338 have come to expect: numbers and data, not vibes.)

Let’s dive into last week’s federal numbers and update the 338Canada federal projection.

Léger: Liberals Keep Climbing

The latest federal poll from Léger measured Conservative support below the 40%-mark for the first time since December 2023. As for the Liberals, they hit their highest level of support in Léger polling (35%) since December 2021—just months after their last election victory.