338 Sunday Update: Somehow, the Conservative Lead Grew Larger

Liberals have enjoyed no post-budget rollout bump thus far.

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Well, that was a week.

You may have heard about some “polling controversies” in the past seven days.

In Quebec, a pair of provincial polls disagreed on whether François Legault’s CAQ had climbed back in popular support. And whether PLQ was rising from its ashes. Read all about it on 338 here.

There was also much noise about a new IVR B.C. poll that showed the (provincial) Conservatives on top, a trend that online pollsters have not yet picked up upon. More on this will come this week.

But on the federal side? There was no controversy.

Days after Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland released the federal budget, several Canadian pollsters went onto the field and tried to measure whether the two-week long pre-budget rollout (and the Liberal budget itself) had managed to move the needle in public opinion.

It may be still too early to draw conclusions with absolute certainty, but so far the outlook appears just as bleak for the Liberals as it did in early April. In fact, it’s possible the numbers became even worse for Team Trudeau.

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Let us first take a look at the week that was in federal polling, and get to this week’s 338Canada projection update. (Subscribers to this newsletter get the numbers early, the main website will be updated on Sunday night.)