338 Sunday Update: No Longer a Blip for the Liberals
With support in the mid-40s and a double-digit lead over the Conservatives, the Liberals appear to have stabilized at a high plateau. How long can this be sustained?
Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) released its quarterly “mega-poll” this week, including approval ratings for nine premiers (sorry, PEI). Before diving into the federal numbers, let’s take a quick look at the provincial picture.
Only three premiers currently enjoy a net-positive approval rating: Manitoba’s Wab Kinew (+26), New Brunswick’s Susan Holt (+14), and Saskatchewan’s Scott Moe (+7).
At the bottom of the list, we find the usual suspects: Quebec’s François Legault and Ontario’s Doug Ford — two premiers who have consistently ranked near the bottom of ARI’s Premier Report Card in recent cycles. It is worth noting that this is Legault’s final quarterly ARI poll, as the CAQ founder is set to step down in April. You can read my latest on the end of the Legault era in Quebec here.
Read ARI’s full provincial report here.
Federally, this large-sample ARI poll places the Mark Carney Liberals at 44% nationwide, eight points ahead of the Poilievre Conservatives at 36%. Regionally, the Liberals lead in Ontario by 11 points, in Quebec by 13 points (over the Bloc), and in British Columbia by six points.
This represents a modest regression to the mean for ARI, as the Liberals held a 13-point lead in the firm’s previous poll in February. As shown on this poll’s page, ARI’s federal numbers have been relatively stable in recent months, aside from that February jump for the Liberals.
Approval of Mark Carney’s government remains comfortably in positive territory, though the numbers have eased slightly. According to ARI, 59% of respondents approve of the government’s performance, compared to 34% who disapprove — a still-enviable net rating of +25, albeit down from +32 last month.
Impressions of Pierre Poilievre have remained remarkably consistent in ARI polling since the election. This month’s 34% favourable rating falls well within his range since September. Nationally, 59% view Poilievre unfavourably, giving the Conservative leader a net favourability score of -25.
To that end, we at 338 HQ are pleased to introduce a new feature: the 338Canada Government Approval Tracker, which will be updated weekly on 338Canada.com. The tracker aggregates all federal polls using a weighted methodology similar to our voting intention model, combining approval and satisfaction measures. Users will also be able to view the full list of polls included in the tracker.
Back to voting intentions: recent polls from active federal firms over the past month paint a consistent picture. Ipsos and ARI both show the Liberals ahead by eight points. Weekly trackers from Nanos and Liaison report leads of 17 and 14 points, respectively. Abacus Data, in last Sunday’s release, put the Liberal lead at 11 points, while Léger measured a 14-point gap in early March.
In our latest episode of The Numbers, Eric Grenier and I discussed whether this late-winter surge has reached a plateau. Could the mid-to-high 40s represent the Liberals’ ceiling? And is the mid-30s now the Conservatives’ floor?
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