338 Sunday Update: Momentum, Confirmed

A growing polling consensus points to a significant shift towards the Liberals, buoyed by Mark Carney’s approval numbers.

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear readers,

The upward trend for Mark Carney’s Liberals, first detected in mid-January, is no longer confined to a handful of polls. Virtually all active pollsters are now pointing in the same direction. While the shift from last April’s election remains modest in size, the emerging consensus is striking — not only on which party leads the race, but on which leader is driving the momentum.

If an election were held today, and the latest numbers were the final ones available before ballots were cast, the most likely outcome — by a wide margin — would be a Liberal majority.

Let us take a closer look at the newest numbers from the past week and update the 338Canada federal projection.

Abacus Data: Seven-point lead for the Liberals

Voting intentions in Abacus Data polling remained remarkably stable throughout the post-election period. From April through December 2025, the main parties never diverged by more than three points. Two weeks ago, Abacus measured a four-point Liberal lead over the Conservatives — a modest shift, but one that aligned with trends emerging since January.

Abacus’ newest federal numbers, released this morning, now show a seven-point national advantage for the Liberals: 44% LPC to 37% CPC.

We have to go back several years to see the Liberal holding such a lead in Abacus’ polling.

One has to go back several years to find Abacus measuring the Liberals at such levels. Scrolling through the 338Canada archives (prior to last April’s election), the last Abacus poll showing a comparable Liberal advantage — LPC +9 — dates back to August 2021, just days before the start of that federal campaign. (Liberal strategists tempted by the siren call of a snap federal election should take a look at how this one unfolded for the Liberals.)

Regionally, this Abacus poll places the Liberals nine points ahead in Ontario, seventeen points ahead in Quebec, and eight points ahead in British Columbia.

Also notable from the Abacus report:

Today, 42% of Canadians say the country is headed in the right direction, while 42% say it is on the wrong track. This marks a clear improvement from much of late 2024 and 2025, when pessimism consistently outpaced optimism.

See all the numbers from this poll here. Read Abacus CEO David Coletto’s analysis here.

Research Co.: Conservatives stumble

Vancouver-based Research Co. released its latest federal numbers — its first publicly available poll since September — showing the Liberals with a 13-point advantage over the Conservatives: 45% LPC to 32% CPC. We covered this poll in greater detail earlier this week.

Read Research Co.’s full report here.

Nanos Research: Close race still, but Carney’s advantage grows

The Nanos tracker has not budged significantly since Christmas and continues to show a relatively close race, with the Liberals ahead by four points nationally: 39% LPC to 35% CPC. Nanos also measures the NDP at 13%, well above the party’s current average.

Nanos’ preferred prime minister tracker, however, tells a different story. Last week’s results show Mark Carney favoured by 53% of respondents, compared to 24% for Pierre Poilievre.

Read Nanos’ latest report here.

Liaison Strategies: Strong approval, steady LPC lead

Finally, the two-week rolling poll from Liaison Strategies shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives by seven points nationally, including a twelve-point advantage in Ontario.

Liaison’s government approval tracker measures 62% approval for the Carney government, against 33% disapproval, for a net approval rating of +29.

Read Liaison’s report here.

338Canada Federal Update, February 15, 2026

With these favourable numbers, the Liberals continue to climb in this week’s projection, improving further in Ontario while holding recent gains in British Columbia. In Quebec, while the Bloc Québécois stands modestly above its April results, the polling consensus still places the Liberals comfortably ahead in the province.