No Sign of a Post-Convention Bump for Poilievre

New polls released in the week following the Calgary convention show little movement toward the Conservatives and, in many cases, a widening Liberal lead.

With one week of polling now available since the Conservative convention in Calgary, there is still no clear evidence of a post-convention bump for Pierre Poilievre or the Conservatives. Instead, fresh polls and tracker updates point to either a stable race or a widening of the Liberal advantage.

Let us begin with the Nanos Research tracker.

On the preferred prime minister question, Mark Carney’s lead over Pierre Poilievre now stands at 29 points: 53% for Carney, 24% for Poilievre. Compared with the previous four-week wave (ending January 9, 2026), Carney climbed four points (49% to 53%), while Poilievre dropped three points (27% to 24%).