338 Sunday Update: Liberals Still Flying High Amid Economic Uncertainty

Federal numbers remain mostly stable, as new provincial polls point to tightening contests in B.C. and Quebec.

Happy Easter / Passover Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,

Last week featured the always much-awaited Léger federal poll, the usual Nanos Research and Liaison trackers, as well as eyebrow-raising surveys from Léger in Québec and from the Angus Reid Institute in British Columbia.

🍁Welcome to the 338 Sunday Update.

Let us begin with federal numbers.

We are seeing a rather healthy spread in the national horse race. Since mid-March, Mark Carney’s Liberals have polled between 44% and 48% nationally, while Conservative support has ranged from 30% to 37%.

As for the NDP, there remains some disagreement on where the party stands—but this has been the case since last summer, so nothing new. Nanos Research continues to measure NDP support in double digits, whereas most other active firms do not.

This gap remains modest, but it has been consistent for months (see chart below).

Read the latest Nanos update here.

We covered the Léger / Postmedia poll earlier last week here. It featured a 14-point national lead for the Liberals, including a massive 20-point advantage in Ontario, and a 15-point lead in Quebec.

Léger’s tracker showed a modest erosion in government approval, but the numbers remain comfortably in positive territory. Nationally, 58% of respondents approve of the performance of Mark Carney’s federal government (–3 since early March), against 33% disapproval (+2)—a net +25, down from +30 last month.

Additionally, Léger finds net-positive approval in every polling region.

Read the full Léger report here.

The Liaison Strategies tracker tells a similar story: its latest update puts the Liberals at 45% nationwide, against 33% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s approval tracker has shown remarkable stability since the new year. Last week’s update measured 63% approval, against 32% disapproval—a net +31.

Read Liaison’s update here.

Let us now update the 338Canada federal projections.

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