Léger: Liberals Still Ahead by 14 Points
At 48% nationally, the Liberals remain comfortably ahead of the Conservatives, though regional data suggest a tightening race in British Columbia.
Good morning, dear 338Canada readers,
The always much-anticipated Léger federal poll was released this morning, and it suggests the Liberals are still riding high on their winter surge. If an election had been held this week, the Liberals would be headed toward a massive majority in the House of Commons, according to these latest figures.
Nationally, the Liberals stand at 48% support (−1 since Léger’s previous poll in early March). The Conservatives trail by 14 points at 34% (also −1).
Regionally, the Liberals maintain a commanding 20-point lead over the Conservatives in Ontario and a 15-point advantage over the Bloc Québécois in Quebec. In British Columbia, however, Léger detects a notable tightening: from a double-digit Liberal lead in early March to a 3-point Conservative edge in late March.
Naturally, the BC subsample is smaller and subject to greater volatility, but the shift is nonetheless noteworthy.
Below are all federal polls from Léger since last fall. The latest numbers are broadly consistent with the upward Liberal trend that began in January.
Satisfaction with the federal government remains high, though it has eased slightly: net satisfaction now stands at +23, down from +26 in Léger’s previous release. In this latest survey, 57% of respondents said they are satisfied with the federal government, compared to 34% who are dissatisfied.
Regionally, variations in government satisfaction are relatively modest. Net satisfaction remains positive in every region, including +25 in Ontario, +27 in Quebec, +19 in British Columbia, and +16 in Alberta.
All results from this Léger poll are available here. You can also read Léger’s full report here.
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