338 Sunday Update: Last Chance for the 338-Seat House of Commons

Get ready for the 343-seat projection next week, unless...

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What are the odds the House of Commons is dissolved this week? That the federal budget Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland will present on Tuesday (whatever is left of it to present), somehow doesn’t get the support of enough MPs to pass?

By now, you would think the odds would be astronomically low.

Why ask? Because if this government survives the week, the next federal election will be held with the new electoral district boundaries (see details of the 2023 Representation orders from Elections Canada here). The number of elected MPs will grow from 338 to 343, and the threshold for a majority will now be 172 seats.

This is why the projection update below should be the last using the 338-seat map, as next Sunday’s 338Canada update will transfer to the new 343-seat map.

(I have been asked countless times whether the website would change its name. The answer is no. Here are my main reasons: 1) The 338 brand is already well established; 2) The number “338” rolls off he tongue far better than “Three-For-Ty-Three”; 3) The name 338Canada will soon gain a “vintage” aura, like Coke Classic or something; 4) Somebody snatched the 343Canada domain name before I could, and I’m fine with that. I said I’m fine.)

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We add three polls to the federal projection this week:

First: The latest Abacus Data poll puts Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at 44% of support nationally, a 20-point lead over the Liberals which sit at 24%. The NDP slips to 17%. Regionally, the Conservatives hold a 19-point lead over the Liberals in Ontario, and a dominant 25-point advantage over the NDP in British Columbia.

In Quebec, Abacus sees a narrow 4-point gap between first and third place, indicating the Conservatives are eating up some support from both the Liberals and Bloc Québécois.

According to Abacus Data CEO

David Coletto

: “This 20-point lead is the largest we have ever measured for the Conservatives and the first time the Conservative vote share has hit 44% nationally.” Read Abacus’ full report here.

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Second: New federal numbers from Pallas Data were released by L’actualité magazine on Thursday. Pallas measures Conservative support at 41% among decided voters, against 26% for the Liberals and 18% for the NDP.

According to the poll, Pallas has the Conservatives at 42% in Ontario, 11 points ahead of the Liberals. In Quebec, Pallas mirrors Abacus, with a triple statistical tie between the Bloc (30%), the Conservatives (28%) and Liberals (27%). In British Columbia, Pallas sees a 20-point Conservative lead over the NDP. Pallas’s full report can be found here.

Pallas Data also measured voter retention rates for the main parties from the 2021 election. While the Conservatives hold the highest rate with 90% (meaning 90% of those who claim to have voted for Erin O’Toole’s CPC in 2021 still intend to vote for Poilievre’s CPC), only 58% of 2021 Liberals voters are sticking with the Liberals.

Even worse news for Justin Trudeau: One in five 2021 Liberal voters are now siding with the Conservatives — a transfer of 6-7 points directly from the LPC to the CPC. See details here.

Finally: The weekly Nanos Research update showed a closer national race than other pollsters of late. Nanos has the Conservatives at 38% this week, 12 points ahead of the Liberals. Read Nanos’ report here. The Nanos tracker details are paywalled here.

As usual, you may access the complete list of federal polls on 338Canada here.

Let’s get to this week’s projection update.