One in Five 2021 Liberal Voters Now Support Conservatives

A new federal poll from Pallas Data shows how, and by much, the LPC voter base has fractured since the last election

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In its latest federal poll, Pallas Data asked its respondents which party they had voted for in the 2021 general election. By breaking down current voting intentions (see details here) with the 2021 vote, we can estimate voter retention for each of the main parties — the proportion of those who are sticking with the same party they voted for in 2021.

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According to the data, Pallas measures that the Conservatives currently hold a 90% voter retention, the highest proportion among the main political parties in Ottawa. Not only that, but the largest blocs of “vote switcher” among former Liberal and NDP voters are those now leaning towards the Conservatives.

Let’s dive into the numbers.