338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Losing Ground

Not a Liberal surge—that came last winter—but a steady erosion of CPC support is widening the gap.

Apr 26, 2026

∙ Paid

🍁Happy Sunday morning, dear 338Canada readers,

Fresh off a by-election sweep and a newly formed (if thin) majority in the House of Commons, the federal Liberals have increased their lead over the Conservatives in recent days—not because Liberal support has surged, but because the Conservatives have slipped further back in the aggregate.

In our latest episode of The Numbers (recorded Thursday morning), Eric and I discussed whether having this much time before the next scheduled election (October 2029 at the latest) is a blessing or a curse for the Conservatives and their leader, Pierre Poilievre. See below. (Oh, and there’s also a quiz.)

Other notable news this week: Alexandre Boulerice, MP for Rosemont—La-Petite-Patrie, is expected to announce his resignation from the House of Commons to run in the next Quebec provincial election for Québec solidaire. This would shrink the NDP caucus to five MPs, with no representation east of Winnipeg.

[Note: As Boulerice’s resignation is not yet official (expected next week), it has not been factored into the current projection.]

Let’s recap the polls and update the federal projection.

Abacus Data: Liberals hold 9-point lead

The latest federal poll from Abacus Data was released this morning. While Abacus numbers had recently been somewhat friendlier to the Conservatives, this newest survey is anything but. Nationally, the Liberals hold a nine-point advantage, including a 12-point lead in Ontario and a 14-point edge in British Columbia. In Quebec, Abacus places the Liberals 13 points ahead of the Bloc.

Since the start of the year, the trend is clear: in January, Liberals and Conservatives were tied at 40% apiece. Since March, however, the Liberals have maintained a steady lead ranging between 6 and 10 points.

Abacus’ government approval tracker continues to show strong numbers for the Mark Carney government: 54% approve, compared to 29% who disapprove—a net +25.

Read Abacus’ latest report here.

Nanos Research: LPC 46%, CPC 32%

The Nanos Research tracker has barely moved over the past month. Last week’s update had the Liberals holding a commanding 14-point lead, 46% to 32%.

Compared to Nanos’ previous four-week wave (ending March 20), the numbers are essentially unchanged. The prior wave (ending February 20) had the Liberals ahead by seven points—suggesting the current gap has both widened and stabilized.

The preferred prime minister tracker shows modest signs of recovery for Poilievre, up four points in the past month. But that’s the extent of the good news for the Conservatives. While Carney has shed three points over the same period, he still leads by a wide margin: 52% to 26%.

Read Nanos’ latest public report here.

Liaison Strategies: Liberals up a dozen

The weekly tracker from Liaison Strategies points to a similar trend. The latest update places the Liberals at 45% nationally, compared to 33% for the Conservatives.

Liaison’s approval tracker is even more bullish on the government, measuring 62% approval against 29% disapproval—a net +33.

Read the latest Liaison release here.

Léger: LPC leading by 18 in Quebec

Last week’s Quebec poll from Léger included federal numbers and showed a comfortable Liberal lead in the province: 47% for the LPC, 29% for the Bloc, and 17% for the Conservatives.