338 Quebec Update: PQ Still Heavily Favoured

With five months to go until the general election, the Parti Québécois remains well ahead in a highly divided race.

Despite the emergence of new rivals and certain reactions that seem to rub part of the electorate the wrong way, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still has every chance of becoming Quebec’s premier.

The past few weeks have set the stage for the coming months to be full of twists and turns on the Quebec political scene. A new premier, a determined sovereigntist option, a government in survival mode, and five parties that can hope to win seats in the National Assembly this fall: these are all factors that could throw the seat projections for the upcoming election—still scheduled for October 6—into chaos.

Recent polls clearly reflect this extraordinary turmoil. Usually, outside of election campaigns, shifts in public opinion are slow and gradual. However, since winter, the numbers have shifted significantly.

For example, the gap between Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) since the start of the year has fluctuated between a 15-point lead and a 3-point deficit, ending this week with the PQ regaining a lead—albeit by just 3 points, which falls within the margin of error.

In December, the PQ held a 15-point lead in the Léger poll, while the saga surrounding Pablo Rodriguez’s potential departure was still having an impact. That lead shrank to six points by the end of January, then to a PQ-PLQ tie in March. In April, Pallas Data even gave the Liberals under new leader Charles Milliard a slight edge.

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