338 Sunday Update: Conservatives Hit a New Low
Referendum talk heats up in Alberta. B.C. Conservatives have a new leader. Guilbeault calls it quits. The CPC slips to its lowest level since 2022.
đHappy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,
No single storyline dominated Canadian politics this week, but there was no shortage of developments worth tracking. From new federal polling and looming by-elections in Montreal to Alberta referendum numbers and a new Conservative leader in British Columbia, here are a few items that caught my attention over the past seven days.
First, federally:
The Conservatives have slipped to a new low in the 338Canada aggregate, reaching levels not seen since late 2022. There are modest signs of recovery for the NDP, but Avi Lewis and his team still have a long way to go. Meanwhile, the Liberals continue to hold a double-digit lead nationally.
LaurierâSainte-Marie LPC MP Steven Guilbeault called it quits last week and is expected to resign his seat in the coming months. That would trigger at least two Montreal by-elections, either this fall or early in 2027: LaurierâSainte-Marie and neighbouring RosemontâLa Petite-Patrie, which will become vacant later this summer when NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice leaves federal politics to run for QuĂ©bec solidaire in next fall's Quebec election. Both ridings were Bloc QuĂ©bĂ©cois strongholds in the 1990s and early 2000s, but were swept up in Jack Layton's 2011 Orange Wave. While Guilbeault won LSM for the Liberals in 2019, the BQ has not been competitive in either riding since.
Another MP has decided to leave the House of Commons to run in the Quebec election. Saint-HyacintheâBagotâActon BQ MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay will seek the Parti QuĂ©bĂ©cois nomination in the provincial riding of Saint-Hyacinthe.
Outside of the usual Nanos and Liaison trackers, one federal poll was added to the pile last week, as Pallas Data released its latest national numbers: 45% LPC, 32% CPC, 11% NDP. Compared to Pallasâ previous survey back in January, the Liberals are up five points, and the Conservatives are down five points. Read Pallasâ report here with analysis from Pallas Data CEO Joseph Angolano.
There was also much action on the provincial scene:
Get ready for months (and, frankly, years) of referendum chatter and polls coming out of Alberta. The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was the first to field a survey using the 37-word question chosen by Alberta Premier Danielle Smith. We covered it here. In short, Alberta separatism increasingly looks like a debate taking place within the Conservative coalition itself.
ARI's numbers show that Liberal and federal NDP voters in Alberta (who accounted for 35% of the provincial electorate in last year's federal election) are almost unanimously pro-federation. Like, abnormally so. Among Liberal voters in the province, 99% would vote for Alberta to remain in Canada. Among 2025 NDP voters, the proportion is 96%. Even softball questions like âDo you like kittens?â doesnât reach that much of a consensus.
Among Conservative voters, however, the province is split down the middle: 48% would vote to remain in Canada, 48% would vote to leave the federation, and 4% remain undecided. Read the full ARI report here.
Oh, and there was major news from the West Coast: the B.C. Conservative Party has a new permanent leader. Kerry-Lyne Findlay, a former CPC MP and Harper cabinet minister, now faces the task of leading the right-of-centre party into the next provincial election, scheduled for fall 2028. Findlay needed all four rounds to win a tight contest against former BC United vice-president Caroline Elliott. Former BC Liberal MLA Iain Black finished third.
While the B.C. Conservatives have a real shot at winning the next provincial election, recent polling in British Columbia has yet to reach a consensus. Since the start of the year, polls have ranged from a nine-point NDP lead to a ten-point Conservative advantage. We will be watching closely to see whether the party's new permanent leader moves the needle in the coming months.
Doug Ford bounce? New Ontario polling from Abacus Data measured Fordâs PCs climbing four points since last month, while the Ontario Liberals â in the midst of much infighting following the defeat of Nate Erskine-Smith in the Scarborough Southwest OLP nomination â dropped five points. the ONDP remains stable at 17% across the province. See Abacusâ numbers here, and read the full report from David Coletto here.
Here is this weekâs 338Canada federal update.
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