338 Sunday Update: Carney’s Cushion Holds
Federal polling remains steady—Carney ahead, Liberals lead—while Quebec’s upcoming by-election could shake the fall session at the National Assembly.
Happy Sunday, dear 338Canada readers,
Three new federal polls to add to the pile this week: the usual Nanos Research tracker, plus fresh releases from Pallas Data and Abacus Data.
These polls don’t tell exactly the same story, but the spread isn’t out of the ordinary for summertime surveys.
In short, Nanos Research sees a double-digit LPC lead (as it has for weeks), Abacus Data measures virtually no change since the April general election, while Pallas Data sees only minor negative movement for the Conservatives.
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Of note in the Nanos update is the 28-point lead for Mark Carney over Pierre Poilievre in the Preferred PM tracker. This week’s numbers—fielded from mid-July to August 1—show Carney as the choice of 51% of respondents, largely unchanged since June, while Poilievre sits at 23%.
Read Nanos’ public report here.
We covered Pallas Data’s latest federal poll earlier this week, both the horserace numbers (here), and its new Economic Patriotism Index (EPI, see here).
Pallas’ horserace showed nothing unusual, see chart below:
As for the EPI, it gauges whether respondents are adjusting their consumer behaviour in the context of the trade dispute with the Trump administration. Read Pallas’s complete report here.
Finally, Abacus Data released its latest federal tracker this morning. Party support remains mostly stable for all parties:
Government approval remains high, according to Abacus, and the overall picture has changed little since the election:
Impressions of Mark Carney remain comfortably positive. This week’s update measured 48% positive impressions against 29% negative—a net score of +19 for the Prime Minister.
As for CPC leader Pierre Poilievre (whose by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot will be held in eight days), Abacus’s tracker has him roughly at parity: 42% positive and 41% negative (net +1).
Read more details of this Abacus poll here, which includes more granular data on leader’s impressions and analysis from Abacus CEO
.The 338Canada federal pages have been updated.
Buoyed by Mark Carney’s overall approval and satisfaction numbers, the Liberals remain in the lead in the seat projections.
Here is the projection’s regional breakdown:
That’ll be all for today.
An notable by-election will be held in Quebec tomorrow in the riding of Arthabaska (in and around Victoriaville). Read my latest on it here.
The governing CAQ has won four straight elections in Arthabaska (all general elections: 2012, 2014, 2018, 2022), including the last two by wide margins. However, the CAQ (and François Legault himself) has fallen out of favour among its francophone base and is expected to suffer yet another by-election defeat—the third since the party’s 2022 general election victory.
Whether Arthabaska goes to the Parti Québécois or the Quebec Conservatives could seriously change the dynamics in the National Assembly one year out from the next Quebec campaign. My podcast partner
and I will livestream and comment the results on YouTube here. Join us tomorrow night!And thank you, as always, for supporting 338Canada.❤️🍁