Pallas Data: Liberals Maintain Edge Over Conservatives
New poll shows Liberal support holding steady—but not growing—as Conservative numbers dip slightly since the April election.
The latest federal poll from Pallas Data—the firm’s first survey since the April general election—shows only minor shifts in Canadians’ voting intentions. Ongoing trade disputes and negotiations with the Trump administration do not appear to have affected Liberal support at this stage.
The survey, conducted from July 29 to August 1 with a total sample of 1,301 Canadian respondents, places the Carney Liberals at 43% nationally among decided and leaning voters—essentially unchanged from the party’s 43.8% share in April.
Regionally, the Liberals continue to hold commanding leads in Atlantic Canada, Quebec, and British Columbia. In Ontario, Pallas measures a six-point advantage for the Liberals over the Conservatives—47% to 41%.
Nationally, the Conservatives are at 38%, modestly below their 41.3% showing in the April election. The only statistically significant regional drop for the CPC is in British Columbia, where support stands at 33%—nine points lower than three months ago.
The leaderless New Democrats register 8% support nationwide, reaching double digits only in British Columbia and the Prairie provinces (Manitoba and Saskatchewan).
In Quebec, the Bloc Québécois garners 27%, nearly identical to its share in the general election.
These results from Pallas Data closely align with the rolling 338Canada averages, though they suggest the Liberals may not have expanded their support over the summer, as some other recent polls have indicated.
We’ll continue to track the numbers as new data becomes available.
Details from this Pallas Data poll are available here. Read about Pallas’ Economic Patriotism Index (from the same survey) here.
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