What if Justin Trudeau Resigned?

Are Liberals damned if he does and damned if he doesn't? New numbers from Pallas Data explore the what-ifs.

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Will he stay or will he go?

The Prime Minister has been asked countless times whether he would lead his party through the next general election, and never has wavered. With three election victories under his belt (2015, 2019, 2021), Justin Trudeau insists he will go for a fourth consecutive win — something no Prime minister has achieved since Wilfrid Laurier more than a hundred years ago.

Yet, regular readers of this column know that the data hasn’t looked good for the Liberals. The 338Canada federal projections have placed Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives at or above the 200-seat mark since late fall of 2023, and numbers since the New Year have not bulged beyond statistical noise.

Even the Prime minister’s personal favourability has not recovered of late. Abacus Data’s latest federal numbers measured Trudeau’s net impressions minus-33 (25% positive, 58% negative) — mostly stagnant numbers since November 2023. Clearly, Trudeau isn’t the asset he once was for the Liberals.

In its latest federal poll, Pallas Data took the pulse of Canadians on whether they would be more or less likely to vote for the Liberals should Trudeau resigned and be replaced before the next election, and if they thought the Liberals would be more likely to win the next federal ballot with another leader.

Let us take a look at the results.

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