What Are the Odds Legault Can Turn the Tide?

There’s no better way to assess François Legault’s chances of pulling off a surprise victory in next year's Quebec election than by traveling back in time to look at the polls.

Entering the stage to the instrumental version of Eye of the Tiger at the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) national convention held in Gatineau last weekend, Quebec Premier François Legault expressed his intention to “fight” for a historic third term. The CAQ base seemed charmed by the premier’s numerous analogies with the career of fictional boxer Rocky Balboa (although, after seven years in power, a comparison with Apollo Creed would seem more accurate to me).

In any case, in light of all the polls published in recent months, there is no doubt that the CAQ is approaching this pre-election year as the underdog. Recent public opinion polls have not been kind to the CAQ—neither to Legault’s government nor to the premier himself.

Faced with such a wide gap between itself and the electorate, is the CAQ’s fate already sealed? Of course, “anything can happen,” but a look at Quebec’s recent history can be instructive in assessing François Legault’s real chances of staging such a spectacular comeback.

Let’s take a look at the position of various Quebec governments one year before the general elections in the past two decades. The numbers are highly revealing.