Tons of Optimism on CPC Convention Floor in Quebec City

With enthusiasm at stratospheric levels, the next two years will feel like an eternity for CPC hopefuls

“Trudeau is so done,” have I heard countless times on the floor of Le Centre des congrès de Québec this weekend in Quebec City, as Conservative members, delegates, staff and MPs gathered for the 2023 CPC National Convention. The enthusiasm was reaching stratospheric levels.

And who could blame them? The very morning the convention got under way, two fresh polls from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) and Abacus Data showed the Conservatives well into majority territory. Abacus Data measured a 14-point lead for the Conservatives — including a 7-point advantage over the Liberals in Ontario and a surprisingly high level of support in Quebec with 25%. As for ARI, the CPC lead was 12 points nationally, and 12 points in Ontario. These numbers alone, should they last until election day, could potentially produce a crushing 200-seat Conservative majority.

But these numbers weren’t alone, and rule of thumb is you’re never as high as your best poll and as low as your worst. So let us look at the 338Canada weighted averages and updated seat projections.