Think Quebec Sovereignty is Moribund? Think Again

Numbers from Pallas Data show more than a third of Quebec voters still support independence

The Quebec National Assembly

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In the summer of 2022, as polls in Quebec showed the Parti Québécois down to single-digit support entering the general election campaign, some in the Quebec commentariat were quick to predict the death of the PQ.

How times have changed. Plamondon now polls in second place behind Legault on best premier, the PQ has slowly distanced itself from other opposition parties in polls, and the party just decidedly won the by-election of Jean-Talon, in Quebec City — a riding the PQ had never held in its history.

Yet, even though PQ fortunes were as low as they had ever been last year, polling on sovereignty still showed support in the low- to mid-30s in favour of independence. While the main driver of the sovereignty movement was doing poorly in public opinion, independence remained vastly more popular than the PQ itself (although we should stress that support for independence has never climbed near majority territory in recent years).

We present today the third part of the latest Pallas Data Quebec poll (fielded September 26-27, 2023, n=1,095). The first part, published in L’actualité, focused on provincial voting intentions. The second part presented federal voting intentions in Quebec (which contained good news for both Liberals and Conservatives, see here). In this segment, we analyze respondents’ views on Quebec independence. Let’s dive into the numbers.