After the beating our predictions took in 2025, we’ve lifted ourselves up, dusted ourselves off and are once again ready to try to predict the political year to come.

Yes, it’s time for our annual Over/Under Contest, the fifth year in a row that we go head-to-head to see who has the better crystal ball for 2026. What score will Pierre Poilievre get in his leadership review? When will Mark Carney’s polling numbers begin to drop — if at all? Will there be any more floor-crossers? And, of course, will there be an election in the year to come?

We’re splitting up the 2026 Over/Under Contest into two parts. Today, we’re reviewing how we did in 2025 (badly) before we set our sights on the year ahead of us in federal politics. Next week, we’ll place our lines and make our predictions for the provincial political scene.

🎄Redeem special Christmas-Holiday offer here.

Subscribe now

Listen to the episode on your favourite platform:

You may also watch the episode on YouTube:

Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. Also: Ad-free episodes!

You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.

338Canada.ca

The Numbers: Predicting 2026 in Federal…