The polls over the last few weeks have not been kind to the Conservatives, as multiple surveys have put the party under the psychologically important threshold of 30%.

What does this mean for Pierre Poilievre, and could some upcoming by-elections be points of no return for his leadership?

This week on The Numbers, we break down the plethora of recent polls that have been published and what they say for Mark Carney and Avi Lewis, as well as the Conservative leader.

We also discuss a trio of new polls out of Quebec that point to an unpredictable provincial election, as well as two new polls out of Ontario that have better news for Doug Ford ahead of three by-elections.

Then, we dive into the mailbag to answer some questions, including what odds we’d give an early election call.

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The Numbers: Pierre Poilievre's Problematic…