The Numbers Behind Poilievre’s Leadership Dilemma

Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action.

Poll analysts will caution that “we need more data” when debating whether freshly released numbers herald genuine trends or whether we are simply reacting to statistical noise. Don’t get me wrong: overreacting to blips is a wonderful (and lucrative) click generator in this dopamine-craving age of social media. But it rarely provides analysis that genuinely informs voters.

This is why it helps, from time to time, to look back at where we were and where we are—to test whether earlier interpretations still hold. Back in August, shortly after Pierre Poilievre was duly elected member of Parliament for Battle River—Crowfoot, I wrote for The Walrus: “Every move this fall—in the Commons, in public messaging, even on social media—will be scrutinized as if part of an updated résumé to be submitted [at the national convention] in Calgary.” This convention, happening in January, is where delegates will vote on whether Poilievre remains leader.

Read the full column here.