Ringing in the Fall: Liberals on Top in New IVR Polls
Liaison shows a comfortable nine-point gap, Mainstreet a statistical tie — but both place the Liberals in an advantageous position as fall session soon begins.
We were treated to two new federal polls today from Mainstreet Research and Liaison Strategies, both IVR firms that accurately measured party support in the April general election. While their latest national toplines differ, both firms place the Carney Liberals in a favourable position as the fall sitting soon gets underway in Ottawa.
Let’s explore their latest numbers.
Mainstreet Research: LPC +2
Mainstreet’s national numbers depict a landscape similar to the end of the campaign: Liberals 42%, Conservatives 40%, NDP 8%. These results suggest a regression to the mean from Mainstreet, since its previous federal survey in late June had measured Liberal support at 47%—the highest for the party from any firm since the election.
Although this 2-point edge constitutes a statistical tie, the data’s regional breakdown still gives the Liberals an advantage over the Conservatives: Mainstreet sees a 14-point Liberal lead in Quebec and an 8-point LPC edge in Ontario.
A not of caution however: Mainstreet’s regional weights differ from the both the 2021 census (which admittedly is a bit dated) and the Statistics Canada quarterly population estimates.
Mainstreet’s report (which was not paywalled) shows Ontario weighted at 45%, whereas Ontario’s population share is closer to 39%.
Quebec represents 22% of the Canadian population, but was weighted at only 18%.
While the other regions are weighted close to their actual population proportions, Alberta is weighted more heavily than British Columbia—enough to raise a few eyebrows.
Does this distort Mainstreet’s national picture? At first glance, one would think underweighting Quebec boosts the Conservatives, overweighting Ontario favours the Liberals, and overweighting Alberta again helps the Conservatives.
Taking Mainstreet’s regional data and re-weighting it with population estimates of StatCan, we get:
Liberals at 42.3%, exactly the same as MSR’s report.
Conservatives at 39.9%, half a percentage point lower than in the report.
NDP at 8.2% instead of 8.4%.
Bloc at 6% instead of 5%.
So, overall, the gaps are marginal. Nevertheless, regional weights should reflect actual population ratios.
Liaison Strategies: LPC +9
Liaison’s latest poll shows a steady race compared with its early August survey. The Liberals lead with 44% (matching their April election result), while the Conservatives trail at 35%. The NDP comes in a distant third at 10%.
We checked: Liaison’s regional weights are correct.
Government approval remains strong in Liaison’s numbers: 61% of respondents approve of Mark Carney’s government, against 33% who disapprove—an enviable net rating of +28. See all the numbers from this Liaison poll here.
As always, 338Canada is your go-to page for all horserace and political polling. Find the complete list of federal polls here.
More to come this weekend, including the 338 Sunday Update.
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