Research Co.: B.C. NDP Lead Reduced to 10 points
The B.C. NDP lead went from 28 points last fall to a mere 10 points this spring, according to Vancouver-based pollster Research Co.
Make that two reputable online pollsters that now measure the provincial Conservatives within reach of the incumbent NDP in British Columbia.
In its latest B.C. release yesterday, Research Co. measured NDP support at 42% across the province, a 10-point lead over the surging Conservatives who sit at 32%.
The B.C. Greens and B.C. United received 12% apiece among decided voters.
Last week, it was Abacus Data (also an online pollster) that saw the NDP leading the Conservatives by only six points (40% to 34%), a gap that had been 18 points in Abacus’ previous B.C. poll last fall.
If we filter B.C. polls by firm and list only the surveys from Research Co., we see that the NDP advantage went from 28 points in September 2023 (a poll that had the Conservatives and United tied) to 21 points in January 2024 (when the Conservatives put some daylight between them and United) to only 10 points in May 2024. (See complete list of B.C. provincial polls here.)
As we mentioned several times in recent months here at 338 HQ: The polling in B.C. has shown significant divergence since last fall, but pollsters on the field out West now all agree that this is a two-horse race, and the Uniteds aren’t in it.
The latest 338Canada B.C. projection published last week (which naturally did not include this new poll) projected B.C. United to be wiped off the map. Clearly, this new data from Research Co. would not improve B.C. United’s overall numbers.
Research Co. saw a significant gender gap in voting intentions. Among male voters, the NDP gets 40%, a slim three-point advantage over the Conservatives. Among female voters, David Eby’s formation holds a commanding 16-point lead: 43% NDP, 27% Conservatives.
Additionally, Research Co. sees a significant generational divide: Among young voters (18-34 years old), the Conservatives lead by five points (39% to 34%). Older voters (55+) support the NDP in dominating fashion: 50% NDP, 26% Conservatives.
We will wait a few days before updating the 338 B.C. projections as we expect more provincial data soon.
Read the full poll report and analysis from Research Co. President Mario Canseco here.
The next British Columbia provincial election is scheduled for October 19, 2024. We expect the campaign to get under way shortly after Labour Day.
More to come this week. Thank you for subscribing to 338Canada. ♥