Quebec is headed for an election in October, and things are tightening. A Parti Québécois victory would almost certainly reopen the constitutional question. While the party has moderated some of its rhetoric, its raison d’être remains Quebec independence, making the next election consequential well beyond provincial politics.
According to the latest Quebec poll from Pallas Data, the PQ holds the lead with 31 percent of support among decided and leaning voters across the province, four points ahead of the Quebec Liberal Party, which stands at 27 percent. Both parties are up two points from Pallas Data’s previous poll in June—a change that falls well within the poll’s margin of error.
"compared to the previous Pallas poll, the CAQ has slipped by six points among francophone voters, while the Quebec Liberals have climbed by four points, and both these shifts exceed the subsample’s margin of error."
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"Although the Quebec Liberals appear well positioned to improve on their disappointing 2022 showing, they remain well short of any plausible path to government."
Juxtaposing these two statements, I wondered if the poll indicated whether the Liberals are benefiting from the CAQ's loss of support. If so, it could suggest that if the trend continues, the Liberals may indeed have a path to government.-- assuming that the shift from CAQ to Liberals is among all-important francophone voters.