Polls Disagree on the Race, but Agree on Poilievre

The latest Nanos and Angus Reid polls disagree on the size of the Liberal lead, but not on the Conservative leader's personal standing.

The weekly Nanos Research tracker, released Tuesday morning, was a brutal one for the Conservatives—and more specifically for CPC leader Pierre Poilievre, whose score on the Preferred Prime Minister metric took a significant dive.

Then on Wednesday, the Angus Reid Institute released its latest federal numbers. While the poll painted a much more competitive race than most firms have in recent months, it once again found Pierre Poilievre posting weak personal numbers.

With field dates spanning July 3 to 21, 2026, Nanos measured Liberal support at 45% nationally, close to the party's current 338Canada weighted average, but just 30% for the Conservatives (29.5% in Nanos' report). Those numbers would translate into a commanding Liberal majority were they replicated in an election.

By contrast, the Angus Reid Institute sees a near statistical tie, with the Liberals at 40% and the Conservatives at 36%.

Both firms place the NDP at 13% nationally—roughly double the party's share of the vote in the 2025 federal election.

The Nanos regional breakdown is paywalled and not published here, but with such national numbers, one wouldn’t be surprised to learn that the regionals were favourable to the red team pretty much everywhere.

Applying the Angus Reid numbers alone to the 338Canada model produces an average projection of 165 Liberal seats—enough to remain the largest party, but short of a majority.

It would be tempting to dismiss these differences as "summer polling." A look at each firm's longer-term record, however, suggests modest and consistent house effects instead.

📊338Canada.ca is an independent and reader-supported newsletter.
🍁Take advantage of our Summer 2026 Special here.