Pallas Data: PQ Lead Narrows as Sovereignty Support Slips

A new Pallas Data poll shows a tighter race seven months out, alongside rising opposition to sovereignty.

With seven months to go before Quebec’s general election, voting intentions are far from set in stone. The Parti Québécois (PQ), which has led the polls since the fall of 2023, remains in a strong position, but the gap between the sovereigntist party and the Quebec Liberal Party (QLP) has narrowed significantly since January, according to a new Pallas Data poll conducted on behalf of 338Canada and L’actualité.

Data collected on February 21 and 22 show a seven-point erosion in the PQ’s lead over the Liberals. Nationally, the PQ now polls at 30% among decided and likely voters, a statistically significant four-point drop from the previous Pallas poll, published on January 10.

For its part, the QLP, under new leader Charles Milliard, climbs three points to 27% — the party’s best result measured by Pallas since the short-lived honeymoon that followed Pablo Rodriguez’s arrival as leader in the summer of 2025.

Among the francophone majority, the PQ still reigns supreme, but its support has also slipped by four points, from 41% to 37%, a variation outside the margin of error for this sub-sample.