Pallas Data: Only Nenshi Keeps Alberta New Democrats Competitive against UCP

Generic ballot shows Danielle Smith's UCP leading by 7 points over ANDP

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Fresh new polling from Pallas Data measures that Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party remains on top of voting intentions in Alberta. Across the province, the UCP holds a 7-point lead over the Alberta New Democratic Party.

So far, no surprise. A Léger poll released last week showed similar results (see list of all Alberta polls here). It appears as though public opinion has not moved much since last May’s general election in the province.

More importantly, Pallas also tested all six ANDP leadership candidates against Smith’s UCP and, while the race to replace Rachel Notley has just begun, early data clearly suggests that former Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi would best positioned to retain NDP support at Rachel Notley’s level in a hypothetical contest against Danielle Smith.

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Let us first look at the general ballot numbers.

“If a provincial election were held today, which party would you vote for?” Among the poll’s respondents, Smith’s UCP receives 49% of support against 41% for Notley’s NDP.

Add to the mix 7% of undecided voters and 3% who would vote for another party. (Considering no other party than the NDP and UCP amassed 1% of the vote in the 2023 election, only these two parties were explicitly mentioned in the poll.)

Among decided voters, the UCP takes 52%, against 45% for the NDP — results almost identical to those of the 2023 Alberta election.

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In Calgary, the UCP (50%) leads the NDP (47%) by three points, essentially a statistical tie. In Edmonton, the NDP leads by 13 points, 56% to 43%. In the rest of Alberta, the UCP remains dominant with a 31-point advantage over the New Democrats, 63% to 32%.

Of note: Pallas sees a significant gender divide in party support in Alberta: Among male voters, the UCP leads by a crushing 27 points (62% to 35%), whereas the NDP holds a notable 13-point advantage over the UCP among female voters (55% to 42%).

Interestingly, there is no obvious relation between age and party support according to this data (the sub-samples per age group are limited in size, however).

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As mentioned above, Pallas tested all six ANDP leadership candidates in a ballot against Danielle Smith. These candidates are:

• Jodi Calahoo Stonehouse, MLA for Edmonton-Rutherford

• Sarah Hoffman, MLA for Edmonton-Glenora

• Rakhi Pancholi, MLA for Edmonton-Whitemud

• Kathleen Ganley, MLA for Calgary-Mountain View

• Gil McGowan, President of the Alberta Federation of Labour

• Naheed Nenshi, former mayor of Calgary

While not all candidates enjoy the same name recognition across the province (and we know name recognition usually plays a big part in such polls), these numbers will help us depict the state of the leadership race at the starting line.

Let’s look at the numbers.

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