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Pallas Data: Conservatives Lead Liberals by 16 points
New federal poll puts Pierre Poilievre's CPC ahead in every polling region
A new federal poll conducted by Pallas Data puts the Conservatives comfortably in majority territory.
In fact, since Pallas was last in the field in August (see details here), the Conservative lead over the Liberals has grown from nine to 16 points.
Let us begin with the national numbers. Fielded on October 21-22, 2023 (with a probabilistic sample of n=1,484, margin of error of ±2.5%, 19 times out of 20), this new Pallas Data poll puts the Conservatives at 43% nationally, a 4-point increase in support compared to August (and nine points above the party’s 2021 election results). As we will see below, the Conservative lead is truly national: The CPC pulls ahead in every polling region.
The Liberals fall to 27% from coast to coast, a drop of three points compared to Pallas’ previous poll in August. As for the New Democrats, they still can’t get traction and sit at 16%. The Bloc Québécois remains near its current average with 7% (30% in Quebec). The Greens and People Party both get 3% of support.
Let us dive into the regional and demographic breakdowns of the poll.
The numbers in British Columbia remain fairly similar to current 338Canada averages, with the Conservatives taking first place with 40%, while the New Democrats (24%) and Liberals (22%) battle for second place.
Unsurprisingly, the Conservatives remain dominant in Alberta (71%) and the Prairies (44%) with crushing leads over their rivals.
In Ontario, the Conservatives hold a 9-point lead over the Liberals (41% to 32%), while the NDP sits in third place with 19%. In Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives lead by 8 points over the Liberals.
And now we get to Quebec.
Regular readers of this column would be aware that I have been paying close attention to the numbers in my home province, especially since the CPC held its national convention in Quebec City in September. To wit: Several polls from many high-rated polling firms have measured a modest-but-significant uptick in Conservative support in Quebec since late summer (see all publicly available federal polls in Quebec here).
How much of an uptick? While the CPC has been cruising around the 15-19% range in Quebec for the better part of 15 years, recent polls have regularly measured CPC support above the 20%-mark in the province, and even as high as 25% (See Abacus Data and a Quebec-only poll by Pallas Data in September).
This newest poll from Pallas Data has the Conservatives (32%), Bloc Québécois (30%), and Liberals (28%) all tied up in the province.
I write “all tied up” because the regional subsample of Quebec is 342 respondents, which yields a margin of error of ±5%, 19 times out of 20. Hence, a gap of four points between the three parties means we have a triple statistical tie on top.
Still, this should raise a few eyebrows. I asked Pallas Data CEO Joseph Angolano about those Quebec numbers. While he agreed the Conservative number was higher than expected, Angolano did stress that the recent surge in Conservative fortunes in Quebec comes from outside the Montreal CMA, which makes sense historically and demographically. “The Liberals still lead in the Montreal area,” said Angolano, “while the Conservatives have surged everywhere else in the province." Although we will need more Quebec-centric data to determine the amplitude of this CPC hike in the province, it appears that Quebec has not been immune to this Conservative surge of support going across the country.
The demographic breakdown of the poll shows how strong and widespread current CPC support has grown. The Conservatives find themselves in the lead among all age groups, including a 5-point lead among voters aged 65+, and a 16-point advantage over the Liberals in the all-important 50-64-year-old demographic.
Among younger voters (18-34 years old), the Conservatives hold a 20-point lead over the NDP. However, an important word of caution here: This subsample is only 134 respondents, which yields an important margin of error of ±8%, 19 times out of 20. Nevertheless, this result is consistent with recent trends showing many young Canadians flocking towards the Conservatives.
As for the gender gap, it is, for lack of a better word, astonishing wide. Among female voters, the Conservatives (34%) and Liberals (32%) are all tied up, while the NDP is a distant third with 20%. Among Canadian men however, the Conservatives hold a crushing 31-point lead (!) over the Liberals — 52% CPC, 21% LPC. Only 12% of Canadian men support Jagmeet Singh’s NDP according to Pallas Data.
Outside of Quebec, Pallas’ national and regional numbers generally fall in line with recent trends observed by all Canadian pollsters since late summer: A constant slide of Liberal support to the benefit of Conservatives, while the NDP remains stagnant.
One wonders however at what point the Liberals will hit their floor and the Conservatives, their ceiling.
But I wondered that exact same thing back in August.
And then again in September.
This poll was conducted by Pallas Data, a new market research firm based in Toronto, on October 21-22, 2023 among a sample of 1,484 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada and eligible to vote in federal elections. The survey was conducted using automated telephone interviews using Interactive Voice Recording technology (IVR). The margin of error for the poll is ±2.5% at the 95% confidence level. Margins of error are higher in each subsample. The poll was commissioned by 338Canada. You may find the poll report here.
Note: Outside of campaigns, the 338Canada federal projections are updated on Sundays, so this new poll will be added on Sunday, October 29, 2023.
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