Nanos Tracker: Carney Maintains Wide Lead on Preferred PM
Will Poilievre’s numbers rebound once he’s back in the House?
The weekly Nanos tracker has been remarkably stable over the past two months—especially when it comes to the question of preferred Prime Minister.
The latest update, released Tuesday, shows 51% of Canadians choosing Mark Carney as their top pick for the job, compared to just 25% for Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre. Here’s the full trend since the April election:
Take note: since the June 6 update—based on data collected from mid-May to early June—these numbers have barely budged.
That’s more than two months of polling with no significant movement.
Naturally, post-election (and mid-summer) polls sometimes suffer from a dip in voter engagement, so we should always approach these numbers with caution. However, the consistency in the Nanos tracker suggests this has not been mere statistical noise—What we saw in June from Nanos (and from Léger) looks increasingly like a real trend.
Pierre Poilievre is expected to return to the House of Commons in September, following the August 18 by-election in Battle River–Crowfoot. (We do not necessarily assume that Poilievre will win, but the Conservatives racked up close to 83% of the vote in the riding back in April. In past decades, BRC has been one of the most reliably Conservative riding in the country.)
It will be worth watching whether Poilievre’s absence from daily media coverage ends up helping—or hurting—his public image.
Okay, back to vacation. Thanks, as always, for supporting 338Canada. ❤️🍁