Nanos tracker: Budget Drama Didn’t Hurt Liberals
Mark Carney’s personal numbers remain stronger than the LPC brand — and well above Pierre Poilievre’s.
The latest update from the Nanos Research weekly tracker shows a modest post-budget bump for the federal Liberals.
The data also suggests that Mark Carney has widened his advantage over Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre on the preferred prime minister question.
Based on interviews collected between October 31 and November 21, 2025, Nanos now places the Liberals at 42 per cent nationally — closely aligned with the current 338Canada weighted average — compared with 37 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP slips to 9 per cent, the first time the party has fallen into single-digit support in the Nanos tracker since last spring.
Of course, these movements remain within the poll’s margin of error relative to recent weeks. In other words, we may simply be observing normal statistical variation that could flatten out in subsequent updates. Still, had the numbers moved in the opposite direction, many observers (including yours truly) would have floated the hypothesis that the latest Liberal budget had landed poorly in public opinion.
Early data from Nanos suggest that is not the case.
Below are the national Nanos numbers since September (bold dates indicate fresh 1,000-sample waves with no overlap):
On the preferred PM tracker, Mark Carney has expanded his lead over the past month. The prime minister now stands at 53 per cent — up four points since the previous four-week sample.
Because these numbers include “Undecided” and “Don’t know” respondents, Carney’s score reflects support from a broader pool of voters than those who currently back the Liberals.
Pierre Poilievre registers 26 per cent, slightly under the size of the Conservative base when undecided voters are included.
Since late September, Poilievre has fluctuated between 26 and 29 per cent (see chart below), while Carney has hovered around the 50-per-cent mark.
More analysis to come this week.
Read Nanos’ full public report here.
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