Nanos Research: 12-point lead for the Conservatives
Nanos Research: 12-point lead for the Conservatives
No major movement in the numbers since early December 2023
The latest federal numbers from Nanos Research were publicly released on Tuesday morning (poll details remain paywalled here). At the national level, the Conservatives (38%) hold a 12-point lead over the governing Liberals (26%), while the NDP climbs to 21% — a three-point hike for Jagmeet Singh’s party since last week’s update.
The Nanos weekly tracker is a four-week rolling poll of 250 respondents per week. The poll’s margin of error is ±3% (around the 50% mark), 19 times out of 20. (Note that numbers presented above are rounded to the closest percentage point.)
It is therefore more prudent to compare Nanos numbers per four-week blocks as to not analyze duplicate data. As such, since this week’s numbers encompass data from December 15, 2023, to January 5, 2024, we should compare them with Nanos’ federal numbers from December 8, 2023.
Those were also publicly released and measured the CPC at 40%, the Liberals at 26%, and the NDP at 20%.
Hence, none of the major parties has moved outside the poll’s margin of error in the past month, according to Nanos.
Considering the flurry of polls made available in late fall and early winter, it appears the Conservatives have reached a ceiling at around the 40%-mark (still well into majority territory). And the “Liberal rebound” in December? Many pollsters have detected it, but the “bump” itself was far too modest to make a dent in the Conservative lead in the projection.
As for preferred Prime Minister, CPC leader Pierre Poilievre still leads by being the choice of 31% of respondents. Justin Trudeau takes a (distant) second place with 21%. NDP leader Jagmeet Singh stands in third place with 16%.
You may read this week’ Nanos report here.
More to come this week.
Stay tuned, and thanks for subscribing to 338Canada ♥