Nanos: A Stable Landscape Heading into 2026

Liberals and Conservatives remain within reach on party support, but Carney keeps a wide lead over Poilievre in preferred PM.

This morning’s Nanos Research update, fielded from November 21 to December 12, 2025, puts the Liberals back in front nationally, leading the Conservatives by three points.

The Liberals stand at 39%, unchanged from last week, while the Conservatives sit at 36%, down two points. The NDP ticks back up to 11%.

Compared with the previous four-week wave, support for the main parties remains well within the poll’s margin of error.

Since October, Liberal support has ranged between 39% and 42%, while the Conservatives have oscillated between 36% and 38% — notably narrow bands for both parties over the past two months. As for the NDP, Nanos had measured the party in the low teens for most of the fall, and it now appears to have reverted to those levels after a brief dip in November.

The preferred prime minister tracker has also returned to values seen in recent months. Mark Carney is the choice of 51% of Canadians, compared with 26% for Pierre Poilievre. See chart below for results from past weeks:

Since October, Carney has ranged from 47% to 53%, while Poilievre has held steady between 25% and 28%. Once again, the numbers point to a largely stable political landscape throughout the fall.

Find the Nanos report here.

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