Most Quebecers Oppose Sovereignty. Even More Reject Another Referendum

New polling suggests a referendum on independence is a losing bet, a major hurdle for the Parti Québécois going into an election year in Quebec.

Quebec polls in recent years—decades, even—have consistently shown that if a referendum on sovereignty were held today, a clear majority of voters would vote against it.

Is that certainty misleading? There are indications, after all, that the Parti Québécois’ rising popularity since 2023 coincided with renewed enthusiasm among independence supporters. Support for the PQ increased after its leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, pledged, in 2023, to hold a third referendum on sovereignty at the same time as the governing Coalition Avenir Québec began to falter.

Many CAQ supporters have long been sympathetic to sovereignty but were willing to set that preference aside to back a party that prioritized Quebec’s autonomy within Canada rather than outright independence. With the sovereignty question now back on the front burner, some of those voters are back in play for the PQ. The data, however, suggests that the overall base of support for sovereignty itself has not grown significantly: it remains solid but still falls well short of a majority of Quebec voters.

Read the full column here.