Liberals Sweep By-Elections, Make Gain in Chicoutimi

The Conservative vote went down in all three contests, again.

🍁Happy Tuesday morning, dear readers,

Well, that wasn’t close.

The Liberals swept all three by-elections last night, adding to their parliamentary majority ahead of the House of Commons’ return later this month.

While nothing in the data suggested the Liberals were in danger in North Vancouver—Capilano or Beaches—East York, we were wondering whether Chicoutimi—Le Fjord, which had been held by Conservative MP Richard Martel through the past three general elections, could go red for the first time since 2015.

And it sure did.

Compared with last year’s general election results in the riding, the Bloc Québécois’ share of the vote remained mostly stable, gaining just under two points. The Conservatives, however, completely collapsed, falling from 34% with Martel in April 2025 to only 12.5% with CPC candidate Régis Gaudreault.

The Liberals jumped 20 points, from 31% to 51%.

The results of all three by-elections will be added to the model for next Sunday’s federal update.

More analysis to come this week.

Thanks, as always, to all subscribers of this newsletter who make 338Canada possible.🍁❤️