Léger Sees Stable Race, Liberals in Front

National LPC lead sits at nine points, but Western subsamples look unusually strong for the Liberals.

The much-anticipated federal poll from Léger was released this morning. Unlike several recent surveys that suggested a narrowing race, this Léger poll depicts a more stable contest between the main parties—with the Liberals maintaining a comfortable lead from coast to coast.

According to Léger (fielded September 5–7, n=1,592), the Carney Liberals stand at 47% (+1 since August), while the Conservatives trail at 38% (+2).

As for the NDP and Bloc Québécois, they register 6% apiece—almost exactly where both parties finished in the 2025 general election last April.

Léger’s regional breakdown shows the Liberals holding a 7-point edge in Ontario (49% to 42%). In Quebec, their advantage widens to 16 points. On the West Coast, the Liberals are ahead by 14 points in British Columbia (53% to 39%).

Where the numbers raise eyebrows is in Alberta and the Prairies (MB/SK). With smaller subsamples (n=136 in Alberta, n=125 in Manitoba/Saskatchewan), caution is warranted—but Léger’s figures here are unusually strong for the Liberals and unusually weak for the Conservatives.

Last April, the Liberals did perform well in Alberta by their historical standards, but the LPC share of the vote amounted to 28%, against 65% for the Conservatives. In this poll, Léger sees the LPC at 39% in Alberta against only 49% for the Conservatives. Could the Liberals have improved their standing in Alberta since last spring? It’s not implausible, but an 11-point increase seems highly unlikely.

Ditto for the Conservatives—in reverse. Since late August, we saw other pollsters measures CPC support in the high-50s to low 60s in Alberta. Abacus Data showed 58%. Mainstreet Research had 59%. The latest from the Angus Reid Institute (ARI) had the CPC up to 62% in Alberta. So Léger’s 49% appears quite low.

Naturally, if Léger showed more “plausible” numbers in Alberta and the Prairies, the Liberals’ national lead would shrink. Considering Alberta’s population is about 12% of Canada, a 10-point change to a party moves its national number by about one percentage point. In this specific case, instead of a 9-point lead for the Liberals, we could have a 7-point lead. Maybe not major, but still notable.

Here below are Léger polls since the general election. Liberals appear stable, while the Conservatives have ticked up just at the edge of the estimed margin or error.

So, what do we make of this survey, especially in light of recent Abacus and ARI polls suggesting a tightening race? It is another piece of the puzzle—one that reinforces the need to trust the averages rather than any single data point.

It is also worth stating that Léger sees a modest downtick of government approval in this newest poll: 53% approve, 37% disapprove. Net of +16. These numbers (and their trend) match what Abacus Data and ARI have released lately.

For now, the message remains: keep calm and carry on.

Find Léger’s full report here.

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