Léger: Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck

We don't know whether Mark Carney’s momentum will last, but early numbers appear favourable to the Liberals.

Fresh data from Léger suggests the federal race has tightened dramatically. Pierre Poilievre’s once-massive Conservative lead has evaporated, and the Liberals under Mark Carney are surging across the country—especially in Quebec.

Polling firms have ramped up their pace in recent weeks, with more than 25 federal surveys conducted (and publicly released) since February 1. While we observe some discrepancies between polls, the overall trend is unmistakable: the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals, which seemed insurmountable just two months ago, has narrowed to the point where the election is now shaping up to be highly competitive.

On Wednesday, we were treated to not one but two polls from Léger: one conducted exclusively among Quebec respondents and another at the national level. The results should send shivers down the spines of the Bloc Québécois and the Conservative Party, respectively.

Let’s dive into the numbers.