Janet Brown: UCP and NDP Deadlocked as Smith’s Support Slides

The UCP drops eight points since the spring as the NDP gains ground in Calgary, and nearly three-quarters of Alberta voters reject path to separation.

🍁Happy Friday morning, dear readers,

Fresh Alberta polling from Calgary-based Janet Brown Opinion Research (JBOR) finds Danielle Smith’s United Conservative Party (UCP) shedding significant support across the province since last spring.

Less than a month before Alberta’s much-anticipated referendum and roughly a year from the scheduled provincial election, Naheed Nenshi’s New Democrats and Smith’s UCP are deadlocked in voting intentions at 41% apiece, according to JBOR.

Compared with JBOR’s previous publicly released Alberta poll in April, Smith’s UCP has dropped eight points province-wide, from 49% to 41% — a shift larger than the poll’s margin of error — while the Alberta NDP has climbed five points, from 36% to 41%. No other party polled above the 4% mark.

In Calgary, JBOR measured a notable swing in favour of the NDP since its April poll. The NDP went from trailing the UCP by nine points to leading by eight — a 17-point swing in the margin.

In Edmonton, the numbers are mostly unchanged since the spring, with the NDP leading the UCP by seven points. Outside the two largest cities, the UCP leads the NDP by 17 points — down sharply from its 39-point advantage in April.

As is often the case in Alberta polling, the numbers reveal a significant gender split. Among male voters, the UCP is comfortably ahead by 17 points, 51% to 34%. Among women, the NDP stands at 49%, 19 points ahead of the UCP.

As for the upcoming referendum on whether Alberta should begin the legal process toward a future binding vote on separation from Canada, JBOR finds that 72% of respondents would vote for Alberta to remain a province of Canada, while 23% would support beginning the separation process.

The poll was first published by CBC Calgary. Read CBC’s article on voting intentions here and about the referendum here.

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The CBC News random survey of 1,200 Alberta voters was conducted using a hybrid method between Sept. 8 and Sept. 21, 2026. Find the complete report on voting intention here and the report on the referendum vote here.